Golderby: The Envelope: Tom O'NeillGolden Globe predictions: film races
Will this year's Golden Globes be a repeat of 1995? That was when another Ang Lee film, "Sense and Sensibility," was considered to be the gold derby frontrunner. "Sense" ended up snagging the Globe for best drama pic, yes, but not best director. That went to a studly-star-turned-director, Mel Gibson, whose "Braveheart" troops ambused all rivals and began their march toward the Oscars.
This year the Ang Lee film is "Brokeback Mountain" and the studly-star-turned-director is George Clooney, whose "Good Night, and Good Luck" has a lot of admirers within the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. Voters do love embracing hunk actors in that directors' category. Clint Eastwood's won three times, even for a film you've never seen ("Bird"), although he did lose one time, for "Mystic River," but that was because nothing could stop Peter Jackson and his mighty "Lord of the Rings: Return of the King." It's possible that actors are invincible in that category, but what complicates matters this year is the fact that Clooney's also nommed for supporting actor. Voters have the option of recognizing him there for "Syriana," which they probably will, but that won't necessarily stop them from giving him two chunks of gold in one night. That's happened at Globes past to Sigourney Weaver and Joan Plowright.
Another category to watch closely is screenplay. If "Brokeback" wins there, plus the directors' race, it may very well be unstoppable en route to the Oscars. But there's a growing surge of support for "Crash," which Globers didn't nominate for best picture. If "Crash" pulls off an upset for best screenplay, that may be an omninous foretelling of a kudos collision ahead. "Crash" creator Paul Haggis and "Good Night's" George Clooney both have a real shot at beating Ang Lee at the Directors Guild of America, which Lee already won in 2000 for "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon." If the gay cowboys fall off their derby horses in those races — for director and screenplay at the Globes and director at DGA — then "Good Night" or "Crash" will probably overtake "Brokeback" in the Oscars home stretch.
Second biggest upset of the night (after Clooney besting Lee) will be "Pride & Prejudice" beating "Walk the Line." Explanation below . . .
BEST DRAMA PICTURE
X - "Brokeback Mountain"
"The Constant Gardener"
"Good Night, and Good Luck"
"A History of Violence"
"Match Point"
My best spies tell me there's surprising voter strength behind "Good Night," but not enough to win. This is "Brokeback's" big victory, of course, but the mountain's cliffhanger: will it be upset in the categories for director, actor and/or screenplay?
BEST MUSICAL OR COMEDY PICTURE
"Mrs. Henderson Presents"
X - "Pride & Prejudice"
"The Producers"
"The Squid and the Whale"
"Walk the Line"
Filmgoers admired and liked "Walk the Line," but loved "Pride & Prejudice." That must be true, too, for Globers. The only glitch might be the expectation that "P&P" will not be nommed at the Oscars. Globe voters don't want to look out of "Line," but they're probably going to give "Line" their top two acting laurels. Enough. Unlike Oscar voters, Globers like to spread the gold around and I think this is where they do it. Besides, voters proved they're Jane Austen fans back in 1995 by sticking by "Sense and Sensibility"as best drama pic.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE PICTURE
"Kung Fu Hustle" (China)
"Master of Crimson Armor" (China)
"Merry Christmas" (France)
"Paradise Now" (Palestine)
X - "Tsotsi" (South Africa)
Most pundits predict this will go to "Kung Fu Hustle" or "Paradise Now," but "Tsotsi" delivered the most powerful emotional wallop.
BEST DIRECTOR
Woody Allen, "Match Point"
X - George Clooney, "Good Night, and Good Luck"
Peter Jackson, "King Kong"
Ang Lee, "Brokeback Mountain"
Fernando Meirelles, "The Constant Gardener"
Steven Spielberg, "Munich"
Here's where the race gets interesting. Lee won a few years ago for "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon," so I think voters will feel they've got permission to stray and indulge their whim to hail Clooney. If so, that's when Oscar storm clouds gather over Brokeback Mt.
BEST DRAMA ACTOR
Russell Crowe, "Cinderella Man"
Terrence Howard, "Hustle & Flow"
X - Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Capote"
Heath Ledger, "Brokeback Mountain"
David Strathairn, "Good Night, and Good Luck"
Usually, the film that wins best pic takes a top acting category, just like the dual victories last year for "The Aviator" and Leonardo DiCaprio. But I think Globers will do their art-house turn here. You know, like when they went for Peter Fonda in "Ulee's Gold" or even for relative unknowns like Geoffrey Rush ("Shine") and Brenda Blethyn ("Secrets and Lies"). They missed nominating "Capote" for best pic, a prize it recently won from the National Society of Film Critics. That was a major oversight. Here's where they can fix that, or at least address it, by backing Philip Seymour Hoffman. Besides, Globers like to forecast the Oscars and everybody knows that studs like Heath Ledger get slapped by the jealous geezers in the academy.
BEST DRAMA ACTRESS
Maria Bello, "A History of Violence"
X - Felicity Huffman, "Transamerica"
Gwyneth Paltrow, "Proof"
Charlize Theron, "North Country"
Ziyi Zhang, "Memoirs of a Geisha"
Maria Bello has her admirers, but Felicity Huffman has the buzz and really gives the year's best performance in one of the year's finest films.
BEST COMEDY OR MUSICAL ACTOR
Pierce Brosnan, "The Matador"
Jeff Daniels, "The Squid and the Whale"
Johnny Depp, "Charlie and the Chocolate Factory"
Nathan Lane, "The Producers"
Cillian Murphy, "Breakfast on Pluto"
X - Joaquin Phoenix, "Walk the Line"
Watch out for a possible upset by Pierce Brosnan. Globers love his daredevil departure as a bisexual hitman. But Joaquin Phoenix is what last year's winner was: an A List star nailing the portrayal of a music legend. Jamie Foxx won for "Ray" and he didn't even sing the film tunes like Joaquin does. Joaquin wins.BEST COMEDY OR MUSICAL ACTRESS
Judi Dench, "Mrs. Henderson Presents"
Keira Knightley, "Pride & Prejudice"
Laura Linney, "The Squid and the Whale"
Sarah Jessica Parker, "The Family Stone"
X - Reese Witherspoon, "Walk the Line"
Reese Witherspoon should win easily, considering she's already swept up kudos from the National Society of Film Critics, New York Film Critics Circle and Broadcast Film Critics Association — even the People's Choice Award! An upset is possible, though, from either the radiant Keira Knightley or the defiant Judi Dench.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
X - George Clooney, "Syriana"
Matt Dillon, "Crash"
Will Ferrell, "The Producers"
Paul Giamatti, "Cinderella Man"
Bob Hoskins, "Mrs. Henderson Presents"
I'm not very confident of this prediction. I can see scenarios where Matt Dillon, Paul Giamatti and even Bob Hoskins can win. But Clooney will win at least one Globe, so, if I predict him here, too, my bases are (mostly) covered.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Scarlett Johansson, "Match Point"
X - Shirley MacLaine, "In Her Shoes"
Frances McDormand, "North Country"
Rachel Weisz, "The Constant Gardener"
Michelle Williams, "Brokeback Mountain"
Poor Scarlett Johansson. Eternally snubbed. She wasn't even nominated at the Oscars in 2003 when everyone associated with "Lost in Translation" scored a bid except its breakout star. Scarlett's been nommed for three Globes, sure, but she's lost three times. The poor dear is sooooo overdue that her plight has become notorious, so I originally picked her to win in this race because I figured embarrassed Globers will probably want to do something about this nagging folly. But then I noticed she's faced off against two similar rivals, at least in appearance: lovely ingenues who impressively prove their acting chops. All three have a real shot at winning, but they could also split the vote. Now consider Shirley MacLaine, an ole Globe fave. She's won 4 times — 5, if you count the Best Newcomer Award, which isn't technically an acting prize. Globers love veteran showbiz dames. Look at the list of past winners in this category: Meryl Streep ("Adaptation"), Lauren Bacall ("The Mirror Has Two Faces"), Lynn Redgrave ("Gods and Monsters"), Joan Plowright ("Enchanted April"), etc. I have a hunch that Shirley will win a fifth acting award, tying the record for most film acting Globes held by Rosalind Russell.
BEST SCREENPLAY
Woody Allen, "Match Point"
George Clooney and Grant Heslov, "Good Night, and Good Luck"
Paul Haggis and Bobby Moresco, "Crash"
Tony Kushner and Eric Roth, "Munich"
X - Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana, "Brokeback Mountain"
If "Crash" or "Good Night" pull off an upset here, that may tell us what strong challenges they could pose to "Brokeback" at WGA, DGA and the Oscars. I've already gone out on too many Globe limbs, so I'll conservatively bet on "Brokeback."
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Alexandre Desplat, "Syriana"
James Newton Howard, "King Kong"
X - Gustavo Santaolalla, "Brokeback Mountain"
Harry Gregson, "The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe"
John Williams, "Memoirs of a Geisha"
"Geisha" or "Kong" really deserve this prize, but "Brokeback's" score is pretty darn good, too, so I think it triumphs here as part of its best pic sweep.
BEST SONG
"A Love That Will Never Grow Old" from "Brokeback Mountain," music by Gustavo Santaolalla, lyrics by Bernie Taupin
"Christmas in Love" from "Christmas in Love," music by Tony Renis, lyrics by Marva Jan Marrow
"There's Nothing Like a Show on Broadway" from "The Producers," music and lyrics by Mel Brooks
X - "Travelin' Thru" from "Transamerica," music and lyrics by Dolly Parton
"Wunderkind" from "The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe," music and lyrics by Alanis Morissette
Look at this category historically and it seems that the nominee with the most recognizable star name usually wins. That's why I'm betting on Dolly Parton, but Mel Brooks could win for the tune he added to "The Producers" just so he'd be eligible for an Oscar. How nice that would be if it happens, considering he won an Oscar back in 1968 for penning the screenplay to the original nonmusical film that started it all.